Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO)

Today I was watching the questioning of Credit rating agency chiefs by the Congress members. They had to justify on why the rating calls could not pick up bad instruments much before the system collapsed. All I heard was diplomatic answers to the questions from the members of the congress. None of the answers would conclusively result in solutions to avoid such events in future.

While hearing all of this, there is one more instrument, which is Collateralized debt obligation (CDO) which could result in the ripple effect from the failure of a Credit Default Swap (CDS). A CDO is an instrument where debt of firms is clubbed together. What makes this instrument sweeter is the was in which they are packaged; the debt of 100 or more companies is clubbed together such that the companies with a higher default risk are compensated by companies with lower ones. This results in higher credit rating eventually. Wachovia tells Bloomberg that $254 billion worth of CDOs have defaulted so far. Today in the questioning the President of the credit rating agency division in Standard & Poor’s, who joined the firm in September last year told the Congress people that on an average the model of rating of instruments was revised as many as 2.5 times in a year. One could very well infer here that the experts could have caught the bad debt and the resulting systemic collapse well before, as the model would have evolved with respect to changing (deteriorating) economic conditions. Even though these instruments can be very complex in nature, hence difficult to rate; definitely it should not be used as an excuse by people who make a living off rating these instruments. Now a buyer of these instruments has no direct exposure to the underlying debt / loan instruments but relies solely on the ratings assigned to the CDO as a whole and would fail to correctly access his risk exposure.

The banks in Iceland too have been reported to have heavy exposure to the CDOs and it’s sad to see reports such as an entire country going bankrupt. As reported in Bloomberg, Barclays Capital estimates that 70 percent of synthetic CDOs sold swaps on Lehman. So it is not hard to understand what kind of mess Lehman was in. As selling the CDO is relatively simpler due to nature in which they are packaged, the seller normally an investment bank would make a commission. On the other hand it allows firms to pool their debt and hide away their losses. What makes this instrument more prone to failure is the mark-to-market accounting basis. The domino effect would come now as the CDOs have part exposure to fixed income products in the form of a Credit Default Swap (CDS). The CDS mess has already become like a folklore and will be used as case studies in times to come.

The Nerd is Cool

I feel like I am sitting in the cockpit of a F-16, the jet engines roaring, the adrenaline gushing and the crazy G-Forces, only thing it seems like a tailspin. What a time to be in the US; you get a box seat view of the events, the feeling is of your team losing. Let’s be practical, everyone is in a fix so how do we rectify it?

For starters there has already been a lot of financial slicing and dicing the financial mess on the Wall St and the Main St and I am no expert on taking full stock of the situation. As I write this there is a $675 billion bailout happening in Germany. Repeatedly, Warren Buffet has reinstated his stock buying ideology – When there greed it’s time to panic and when there is panic it’s time to be greedy and buy stocks. But I am sure not many people are willing to tread the waters in times like this. But let’s not focus on that now.

Had you been conservative and thoughtful of the long term, would you have been in panic. It pays to follow investment strategies of successful investors in the long term and read great books. Like one of the most amusing story I read about – When Warren Buffet’s father took him to meet the CEO of Goldman Sachs when he was 10 years old and then the Sage of Omaha himself coming out for the rescue of Goldman Sachs with $5 billion. Fascinating. What should we all learn from this? Patience, that’s what matters. Your thoughts and actions on your investing habits will pay off rich dividends when you will make value buys with a really long term horizon. Buffet says – when we buy a stock, think of that as if you were buying a business. Such that your whole life depends upon it. Not only you will tend to make a better informed decision but thoroughly research it before buying it.

Here are My 2 dimes in these rough times.

1. Spend conservatively. Don’t spend on things that won’t put you in a more comfortable position than you are already in.
2. Analyze more. See how many assets you have. By assets I mean what is earning you money.
3. Prioritize what matters. Think of the final goal and not just the journey.
4. Learn about your risk appetite and strike a balance between that and being risk averse.

ICICI Money Multiplier

Create Auto Linked Fixed deposits
If you have more than  Rs 15,000  in your savings account in ICICI, you should better make use of the Money Multiplier facility in ICICI. ICICI allows you to invest the extra money in Fixed Deposits that can be closed prematurely. In a Resident Savings Account, ICICI pays you a interest rate of 3.5 percent, with a fixed deposit of one year you can make as much as 9- 10 percent. Interest rates for different durations can be found at the following link.

http://www.icicibank.com/pfsuser/interestrates/interestrates.htm

What happens if you break the Deposits prematurely
As soon as you balance goes below 10,000 , your Fixed deposits are broken in reverse order of their creation, the one that was created last is broken first. You can easily earn more than a couple of percent more in interest rates. ICICI official guidelines for the money multiplier features can be found at the following link.

http://www.icicibank.com/pfsuser/icicibank/depositproducts/quantumoptima/features.htm

One bad thing about this is it says you cannot avail this facility if your account is linked to a ICICIDirect demat account. I am trying to figure out a way to use this along with your ICICIDirect account. Will update the post once I find out.

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Is your Bank safe ??

With three banks going down and are taken over by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) in the last month, check whether investments in your bank are safe.

What is the FDIC

FDIC or the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is a US government entity that insures deposits in saving, checking and retirement accounts in member banks. Individual accounts are insured up to an amount of $100,000. There are different rules for different kinds of accounts. Some Retiree accounts may be insured up to $250,000 under the Federal Deposit Insurance Reform act of 2005. More information can be found at the official FDIC site.

Find out whether your savings are safe

Find the list of Banks insured by the FDIC at the following location.

http://www4.fdic.gov/IDASP/main_bankfind.asp

Also, if you are one of those whose Bank is already failed, you can check if you deposits are safe or not at the following location.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Precautionary steps to take

1. Do not have all your money in one Bank account, if you have say $100,000 in one account and another $100,000 in another account of another Bank, and both Banks are insured by FDIC, then you don't lose any money.

2.

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Look at the quarterly report published by FDIC on Banks. Member Banks insured by FDIC have to adhere to regulations set by the FDIC, still they can fail. FDIC publishes a quarterly report of member banks depending on various parameters to look at Banks and rates them accordingly.

Circuit Breakers

Circuit breakers on the stock market work in a similar way to how an electrical fuse halts the working of the devices once there is too much load. It helps in stopping the system for a small period of time rather than breaking the system.

Technorati Tags: Indian Stock Markets,BSE NSE Circuits

Index Circuits

In case the index(BSE or NSE) rises or falls by more than ten percent, the circuit breaker kicks in and halts trading. Depending on the change in indexes, different period of break times are put in. Complete information related to the how much time the trading is halted can be found here. In case of a 10% movement of either of these indices, there would be a one-hour market halt if the movement takes place before 1:00 p.m. In case the movement takes place at or after 1:00 p.m. but before 2:30 p.m. there would be trading halt for ½ hour. In case movement takes place at or after 2:30 p.m. there will be no trading halt at the 10% level and market shall continue trading. In case if the market hits 10% before 1 p.m. then as explained there would be a one hour halt in trading and after resumption of trade in case if the market hits 15% in either index, then there shall be a two-hour halt. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 1:00p.m. but before 2:00 p.m., there shall be a one-hour halt. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 2:00 p.m. the trading shall halt for the remaining part of the day. If the market fails to resume at 10% then the next limit is placed at 15% and finally at 20%. In case if market fails to resume from 15% and if it hits 20% irrespective of the time, the trading shall be halt for remaining part of the day.

Circuits on Individual stocks

Circuits are also present on individual stocks. The stocks present in the BSE 30 and the Nifty 50 do not have any circuits built on them. These are known as the Non Index scripts. Incase there is huge percentage swings in these stocks, the whole market circuits can be triggered. For the other stocks on the nifty, circuits are built at 2,5 or 10 percent. This limit is determined by the impact cost and other things related to the script. These values are calculated monthly and for  a new stock ,it is placed in a group which has most companies in the same market cap.

How ya doin’

To start with, apologies for my prolonged absence here. I have had the opportunity in the last couple of months to see the financial and energy crisis unfold from the Big Apple. Here in the US, people are very polite and friendly to each other – asking How ya doin? To anyone who catches your eye. Usually the answer happens to be - I am fine.

There have been 2 long weekends in the US past me now, Memorial Day and the other American Independence Day. The gas prices here have risen by more than 30% since I landed. So there were fewer cars planning long trips on these weekends. Oil prices have already started their round of Beijing Olympics, smashing one record after the other. The prices at the supermarket too have been rising, with a woman balking at how much a bunch of asparagus costs. Since start of this year, around 500,000 people have lost their jobs in the US. Some of the companies are rethinking their strategies of manufacturing in China, as the cost of shipping goods to US offsets the cost advantage. It’s pretty much the downward slide which has been ongoing.

So what’s the real deal? People here are taking a more pragmatic approach towards things instead of believing in blind pessimism. They are just avoiding what hurts the most. Like the gas prices. Instead they just choose to stay back and go for dinners with their families at closer locations. It helps to look around for pockets of opportunity, like today Warren Buffet is financing a deal for Dow Chemicals, even though he has long concluded that US is in recession. Job data today, shows there has been a biggest drop in claims in over 3 years. The economic stimulus package seems to have worked for the retailers. So there are indeed reasons for hope. The Presidential elections are around the corner and people are hoping that things will turn around for the good.

So where are we headed. As for the oil scenario, which is the cause for bad sentiment all around, will only get worse with speculation with winter approaching in the US. The financial crisis seems to worsen day by day – the latest being government bailouts feared for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It’s a period of incertitude and hoping for the best.

So the real answer to the question above is – Not so good.

PS: Recession or otherwise some people can still afford to pay $2.1 million for a lunch with Warren Buffet at Smith & Wollensky.

Ten things India needs to do...

Following are the ten things listed in a Goldman Sachs economics paper that India needs to do to achieve its potential. The complete paper can be found here.

www.livemint.com/2008/06/16235741/CB9BCB3C-5825-4AD6-9604-042202BBC985ArtVPF.pdf

1. Improve Governance
2. Raise Educational Achievement
3. Increase quality and quantity of universities
4. Control Inflation
5. Introduce a credible fiscal policy
6. Liberalise financial markets
7. Increase Trade with neighbours
8. Increase Agricultural Productivity
9. Improve Infrastructure
10. Improve Environmental Quality

Goldman Sachs book on the emerging economies of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) " BRICs and Beyond" can be found here.