Showing posts with label Commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Commodities. Show all posts

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Commodities

Who invest in Commodities and why?

There are two kinds of investors who invest in commodities. One who use it as a hedging tool to lock future prices and the second who use it to make profits by speculating on the future price movements. The first set of investors are usually investors who want to buy these commodities at a future price but are unsure of the future prices. e.g. Farmers would want to sell their grains at a particular future date. However, they are not sure what the future prices would be. Hence they would go Short in a particular futures contract in order to lock future prices. The same is applicable to any dealer who would be buying Gold on a future date and would want to lock the buying price today.The later set of investors trade on commodity futures and gain/lose depending on the future prices. They trade on these futures not with an intent of getting the actual commodity.

Why do Portfolio Managers like Commodities? 

Commodity futures are the only investment tools providing a negative correlation to all other investment asset classes (stock, bonds, etc). This is because commodities tend to gain (during depressions) when all other asset classes loose value. Due to this -ve correlation commodities help reduce the overall risk of the portfolio hence making it much more attractive to investors.

When to invest in Commodities?

People usually tend to invest in commodities when there are economic downturns. In times of economic depressions, the stock market usually tends to go down. Due to the -ve correlation that commodities have with the stock markets people invest in commodities as a hedging tool.

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Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Crude oil prices to fall ....

US Senate approves a bill to stop stockpiling the Oil

The US Senate voted to stop stockpiling of oil, US buys 70,000 barrels of oil everyday to create a strategic reserve that can be used in case of emergencies. Even though 70000 is a small number compared to the 21 million barrels of oil that US consumes everyday, it will still be step forward in reducing the Oil Futures.The House also passed a bill to stop stockpiling while the price of oil is more than $75 which probably isn't going to be sometime soon.

Dollar starts to hit back

The US dollar after hitting a low against all currencies has started to fight back(1 dollar = 41.85 Rupees, let it hit 45 and I am going to transfer all my money back home :) ). Part of this is because there seems to be increasing stability in the Financial market. Federal Reserve also seems to be done with the rate cuts and that should help the dollar.

International Energy Agency reports drop in Consumption

Higher gas prices have led to a drop in consumption of gas in developed countries. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) suggested that gas prices rose only 1.2 percent after adjusting for seasonal changes in gas prices (Gas prices increase as summer marks the driving season in US).

All these factors should lead to a drop in the Crude oil futures from its daily record breaking prices.

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